LANDSCAPING by Gerry Cagle : gcagle@3nets.com for The Educated Guess, October 1997 (published by The Album Network, Inc.) "It's been on three weeks and it hasn't shown sales" was once an unarguable excuse for dropping a record... in the weeks it takes for a record company to determine whether or not a record is going to sell, a programmer's career can be over. Record sales, or more appropriately, how record sales are tabulated, have drastically changed the landscape of radio programming over the past decade. But not in the way most record people understand. Before we can properly understand today's industrial environment, a brief look back at the history of record sales and how those sales related to programming is necessary. In the not-so-distant past, programmers were extremely interested in the tabulation, research and outcome of local record sales. In the 70s and early 80s, singles were still selling dramatically and programmers followed those sales closely. There were more individually-owned record stores and these store owners were happy to share their sales with local radio stations... it made the stores more important. Local record promotion people worked the stores heavily because record sales related directly to airplay. Everyone (programmers, local promotion people and store owners) was working toward a common goal: to accurately (or by inflation) reflect sales that would correspond to or increase airplay. On the national level, record companies reacted instantly to airplay. Stores were stocked with product until orders could kick in and programmers could usually get a good feel as to whether or not a record would sell within three weeks of initial airplay. Three weeks! By today's standards, that sounds impossible. But not too long ago, three weeks of initial airplay was the over/under mark. If a record was being programmed in regular rotation, it would usually show sales within three weeks or something was wrong: the records wasn't a hit or the company was not behind the project enough to stock the stores. Either way, lack of sales spelled trouble. "It's been on three weeks and it hasn't shown sales" was once an unarguable excuse for dropping a record. How times have changed! What happened? First, large record outlets began gobbling up many of the individual record stores. Soon these big outlets wanted to control their information and it became harder for programmers to obtain sales stats from individual stores. The outlets began supplying radio stations with total sales for the market, but this made it impossible for programmers to follow ethnic or diversified sales from a given area. Stations are specific their target demos. As sales showed only the large melting pot, specific sales breakouts were impossible to identify. Next came the diminished impact of singles sales. Since these large record outlets (and the record companies) made most of their money off albums, singles sales became more difficult to chart. Record companies made more money - and catered to - the large record outlets. In many cases, the surviving local record stores found it difficult to get immediate product. The tail began wagging the dog. Bring on SoundScan, K-Mart and WalMart and record sales have become less of a programming tool. That is a travesty, because sales are the barometer of a hit record. Record companies define a hit by sales. That mentality is not shared by radio because programmers don't have the means or the time to make that calculation. In the weeks it takes for a record company to determine whether or not a record is going to sell, a programmer's career can be over. Record companies must recognize this programming reality and adjust their promotion accordintly. Today, local sales (so important to each specific radio station) are tough to calculate. Immediate sales are impossible. Now, record companies are asking programmers to play a record, and keep on playing it, sometimes for longer than six weeks until sales kick in. Why? It takes that long to get records in the pipeline today. And depending on market size, it can take even longer. Record companies are concentrating more on the major markets because that's where the majority of the sales are. On the surface, there's nothing wrong with that. But as is often the case with surface beauty, it rubs off at night and sometimes doesn't stand the test of time. Record companies are critical of programmers because many put too much emphasis on call-out research. Programmers are left with little choice. When you don't have a fastball, you must rely more on your curve. Few programmers have the ability to accurately chart local sales. They rely on what they can do... call-out research. Record companies have helped create the monster, now they have to deal with it. Record companies heavily tout national sales. If, however, the national sales picture isn't stellar, programmers react... because that's how they've been programmed. You can't expect a programmer to react positively to a glowing national sales picture, then not react negatively to the opposite. Sales, of course, have always been the lifeblood of record companies. But as sales reports have become so immediately important to the success of a record, record companies must find a way to make those sales as immediately important to programmers... so both can share the common goal. What's an industry to do? One example would be to start a "farm team" of individual record stores in smaller markets. If a record company chose 10 small markets that were generally reflective ethnically, demographically and psychographically of the nation as a whole, and babied 10 local stores in each market with free product, discounted merchandise and a healthy marketing package, it could alter the landscape again. Product by new acts could be showcased in these markets. Records could be stocked immediately upon airplay and sales could be accurately charted. Record companies could get an immediate feel as to whether or not a record was real - without spending a marketing fortune. Then, the record companies would have a true story - a true sales story - to tell to the majors. Programmers would be able to see sales... on local levels. These programmers then might not feel so paranoid about sticking with a record until national sales kicked in. Record companies could affect what happens tomorrow by going back... to the future. It would be easy to implement, cost effective, and makes perfect sense. So there's absolutely no chance it will happen.

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